Disclaimer:
This is not investment advice.
It is a philosophical survival essay by a small business owner currently holding Bitcoin and Apple stock. You are entirely responsible for your own investments.
1. Even a Madman Cannot Time the Market: The Agony of Being Early
(1) Opening Part 2
In Part 1, we established the facts:
- KOSPI 5,500 is a bubble.
- OpenAI’s paid subscriber growth has stalled, while free users are melting down their chips.
- Non-reserve welfare states (like South Korea and France), drunk on the AI myth, are printing sovereign bonds recklessly.
- When OpenAI restructures, the bonds of these fiscally reckless nations will face mass dumping.
“So what? Buy Dollars? Buy Gold?”
I live in Georgia, where the price of milk doubles one morning and crashes the next.
This is a level of price volatility completely foreign to Seoul, Tokyo, or Munich.
The answer is Bitcoin. There is no other alternative.
Don’t misunderstand me.
I am not a Bitcoin Maximalist.
I am not the guy screaming,
“A peaceful world is coming where we’ll buy Starbucks coffee with Bitcoin!”
This essay is the survival strategy of a small business owner who completely distrusts the state.
(2) The Problem is Always Timing
The logic is sound. People are starting to see the cracks.
But what matters is timing.
Nietzsche’s madman threw his lantern to the ground, shattering it.
“Finally he threw his lantern on the ground so that it broke into pieces and went out.
‘I come too early’, he then said;
‘my time is not yet. This tremendous event is still on its way, wandering;
it has not yet reached the ears of men.
Lightning and thunder need time; the light of the stars needs time;
deeds need time, even after they are done, in order to be seen and heard.
This deed is still more remote to them than the remotest stars – and yet they have done it themselves.'”
There is a way to understand timing.
👉 It is history.
In The Practice of Everyday Life, Michel de Certeau looks down at the ground from the skyscraper of the World Trade Center in Manhattan.
“Wall Street rises, sinks in Greenwich, then surges again like a wave in Midtown.
It quietly passes Central Park and ripples away beyond Harlem.”
He realizes that looking down from above, like a city planner, blinds you to the truth.
Disgusted by his own voyeurism, de Certeau descends to the ground floor.
In the pedestrians wandering the back alleys of New York, in the history of tradition and resistance forged by immigrants, in hip-hop music and graffiti, he sees a “proliferating illegitimacy.”
The real New York was not in the forest of skyscrapers, but in this history of illegitimacy.
De Certeau says: “If you are deprived of space, you must conquer time.”
The lesson for us is the same.
The narratives peddled by the government, the KOSPI hitting 5,500—this is the economy viewed from the skyscraper.
The truth lies somewhere in the illegitimacy of the back alleys.
To see that illegitimacy, you must know real history.
Only then can you understand the timing.
2. There Is No Utopia: The Narrative of the Ultimate Insurance
Bitcoin is a put option betting on the bankruptcy of the democratic welfare state.
While Nobel laureate economists like Paul Krugman laugh at Bitcoin and confidently predict the endurance of the welfare state, real history is moving in the exact opposite direction.
(1) The Religious Romanticism of Bitcoin Maxis vs. Reality
[Hyperbitcoinization: “The Dollar Dies, We Buy Starbucks with Satoshis!”]
Bitcoin Maxis claim:
“Soon, all fiat currencies will collapse, and Bitcoin will become the world’s sole reserve currency. We will price and pay for Starbucks in Satoshis!
The Lightning Network will destroy VISA!”
I disagree.
The democratic welfare state will keep printing money until there is no ‘next fool’ left to buy its bonds.
If that’s the case, why would you exchange your precious Bitcoin for a coffee?
You buy coffee and pay taxes with the garbage fiat currency (bad money).
The era of everyday Bitcoin payments is not coming.
Bitcoin will become a hoarding vault—locked away forever outside the reach of the state system.
This aligns perfectly with my own experience.
Here in Georgia, the price of milk was 2.9 GEL yesterday and 5.5 GEL today.
It skyrockets 170% in a single day, then drops.
There is no reliable international currency nearby.
Russia? Turkey? China? I’d rather hold the Georgian Lari.
In the non-Western world, there is no alternative to Bitcoin.
We have excess electricity from gas and hydro, but no manufacturing.
Even the government doesn’t trust its own currency.
So, they run Bitcoin mining rigs day and night.
In places like this, inflation volatility is far more terrifying than Bitcoin’s volatility.
It is infinitely better to safely store Bitcoin and take out loans against it, completely tax-free.
People here sell stablecoins to cash out; no one sells their Bitcoin.
Wall Street’s strategy of shorting futures to siphon off supply doesn’t work well here.
Their purchasing power may be small, but they are a demographic of absolute conviction.
They never sell.
When these small convictions aggregate, they define the heritage of the asset.
In the long run, everyone will be forced to scramble for spot Bitcoin.
Because it is the dominant strategy.
[Fix the Money, Fix the World: “Fix the Currency, and Human Morals and Peace Will Be Restored”]
Bitcoin Maxis argue:
States print infinite money to fund pointless wars
and cause people to YOLO their cash before it melts.
This is the phenomenon of high time preference.
If Bitcoin—capped at 21 million—rules, governments won’t be able to start wars, and people will save, restoring sound capitalist ethics. (e.g., Saifedean Ammous).
This, too, is detached from reality.
The state printing money is not a currency problem; it is a political problem.
Even under the Gold Standard, governments could have simply printed ‘paper gold’ 10 times or 100 times over to inflate the supply.
The core issue is not which currency we use, but the fundamental nature of democratic bureaucracy, which corrupts ethics.
As democratic bureaucracy expanded from the village to the state, and from the state to the federal level, human relationships became thoroughly anonymized.
Fiat currency isn’t inherently evil.
The politicians who use it as a tool to expand their power are evil.
For example, a small village where neighbors get along perfectly well can use the US Dollar and still overflow with morals and peace.
They voluntarily feed the hungry grandmother and find a job at the local mart for the unemployed youth. They handle funerals together.
Democratic politicians cannot stand this sight.
They believe they are the sole agents of enlightenment.
So they scream “People First!” while systematically destroying voluntary communities, mandating that all human-to-human communication be routed through the “Government.”
This is how they maintain power and create jobs for their democratic cartel families.
The bureaucrats skim 30% of the taxes for their own salaries and sprinkle the leftover pennies to my neighbors.
It has been 15 years since Bitcoin was born.
Has the government gotten any nicer?
No.
The debt has only grown.
The government will never get nicer.
Bitcoin is simply a lifeboat to escape such a country.
[Bank the Unbanked: “The Complete Dismantling of Wall Street and the Corrupt Banking System”]
Bitcoin Maxis promise:
Bitcoin will grant financial freedom to the unbanked poor in Africa and South America.
This is true.
For instance, South Korea’s manufacturing sector is suffocating from high labor costs and cannot function without illegal immigrant workers.
These workers receive their salaries in USDT and store it in Bitcoin.
It is a level of freedom unimaginable in the past.
However, the claim that corrupt traditional banks like JP Morgan will fall to their knees before the superiority of Bitcoin’s technology and become unemployed?
That is still a long way off.
Right now, Wall Street is sweeping up spot Bitcoin to lock it in their own vaults.
They are drowning Western retail investors and whales in waves of volatility and liquidation beams.
Wall Street already knows they cannot trust the Federal Reserve as the lender of last resort.
That is why Treasury yields keep rising even when the Fed cuts interest rates.
As an alternative narrative to dismantle the traditional financial system, Bitcoin still has a long road ahead.
(2) The Ultimate Insurance Narrative: Goldbugs vs. Paul Volcker
To summarize:
- The narrative of Bitcoin as the ultimate insurance policy against the bankruptcy of the welfare state dominates reality far more than the Bitcoin Maxis’ dreams of “Satoshi payments” or “the collapse of banks.”
- Bitcoin’s volatility is a non-issue in the non-Western world.
They have no alternative, and they absolutely never sell.
Meanwhile, the narratives of asset tokenization and smart contracts are ironically being hijacked by Wall Street.
History has seen outlaws who bet against the bankruptcy of the welfare state before.
They were the Goldbugs. 1970s, America.
The fiscal deficit exploded due to the Vietnam War
and the Johnson administration’s “Great Society” welfare spending.
The purchasing power of the dollar collapsed.
Seeing through the contradictions of the fiat system, the first generation of Goldbugs emerged.
Men like Harry Browne.
September 1979: The price of gold was $397 an ounce.
January 1980: It breached $800 intraday.
Inflation was raging at 7 to 13%.
The Goldbugs won.
Then, Paul Volcker entered the room.
He jacked the federal funds rate up to 20%.
He choked the money supply.
In 1981, gold crashed by 32%, collapsing to $459 an ounce.
It marked the beginning of a 20-year secular bear market.
Volcker could pull that trigger for one simple reason:
America’s debt-to-GDP ratio at the time was in the mid-30% range.
Today is different.
US debt is at 120%. France is at 112%. Japan is at 250%.
South Korea hides its debt in state-owned enterprises, but include them, and it easily tops 70%.
If they raised rates to 20% today, these welfare states wouldn’t even be able to pay the interest with their tax revenues.
They would default instantly.
They have permanently lost the weapon to fight inflation.
This is exactly where Bitcoin asserts its dominance over gold.
When the crisis hits, a welfare state that cannot raise interest rates will do what FDR did: enact capital controls and seize private property.
1933, Executive Order 6102.
The forced confiscation of the public’s gold.
Physical gold gets looted by the administrative violence of the state.
Bitcoin, which can cross borders as 12 words in your head, is different.
To the question of “When is the timing?” there is only one answer.
Right now. Immediately.
3. Make a Choice You Won’t Regret, Even if This Life Repeats
My friends mock me.
“You’re down 20% on Bitcoin and you still talk too much.
Welfare disease isn’t a new thing.
Just buy Samsung now. You can get back into Bitcoin later.”
They aren’t entirely wrong. 🤣 But I prefer to answer by quoting Nietzsche:
“‘You are a god, and never have I heard anything more divine.’
If this thought gained power over you, as you are it would transform and possibly crush you;
the question in each and every thing,
‘Do you want this again and innumerable times again?’ would lie on your actions as the heaviest weight!”
I sold my shop. I sold my US stocks.
I went all-in on Bitcoin and Apple.
Was it the perfect timing? I don’t know.
But the moment I realized that the democratic welfare state structurally exploits small business owners, that realization was divine.
Even if this life repeats an infinite number of times, under the same circumstances, I would make the exact same choice.
Therefore, I have no regrets.
This is my Amor Fati.
I know Bitcoin holders are shaken.
It has crashed 60% from its all-time high.
But when the myth maintained by OpenAI ends, there will be no ‘next fool’ left to absorb the sovereign debt of the welfare states.
The US will be fine.
The real victims are the non-reserve nations operating bloated fiscal budgets and welfare systems,
like South Korea and France.
They have already lost their monetary sovereignty.
They cannot print dollars to export their debt.
They have no alternative.
I will keep stacking until the day I reach 1 full BTC.
4. The Blind Spots of This Scenario
Keynes said the market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.
I know this. That is why I do not place 100% blind bets. I am watching three mechanical triggers.
(1) Trigger 1: The AI Bubble Signal
- The moment Big Tech uses the phrase “Capital/Investment Efficiency” during earnings calls.
- When they issue massive corporate bonds to build data centers, dragging Treasury yields up with them.
- When OpenAI starts complaining about free users, and their ad revenue proves ineffective.
According to the latest news, NVIDIA has scrapped its $100 billion data center investment plan for OpenAI, pivoting instead to a $30 billion equity stake.
NVIDIA has already entered the “investment efficiency” phase.
They smelled the rot.
They pivoted to a strategy where they simply reap the rewards no matter who acquires or takes OpenAI public.
Honestly, I envy the US.
From their perspective, it doesn’t matter if OpenAI goes bankrupt.
It will just be a healthy restructuring.
It will merely solidify America’s grip on AI hegemony.
Google or Microsoft will simply absorb the core software tech and engineers, leaving the AI ecosystem healthier.
A startup with a terrible governance structure and no real revenue model—one that only acts as a liquidity black hole—disappearing will not dent the US economy.
Even if there is a shock, they can just print more dollars.
Check Indicators:
Downward revisions in Big Tech CapEx guidance, rising US 10-year Treasury yields.
(2) Trigger 2: When Does Bitcoin Get Dumped?
- The moment Wall Street institutions dump all assets in a desperate dash for cash.
- When the VIX breaks 40.
Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 and is highly liquid, algorithms will mechanically dump it first. - When the Korean Won breaches psychological limits, triggering a foreign capital bank run.
Check Indicators: VIX over 40, FX market seizures.
(3) Trigger 3: When Do I Scoop Up Bitcoin?
- The exact day the bond market seizes up and the Fed announces emergency liquidity injections or rate cuts right before the financial system paralyzes.
- That is when I buy more Bitcoin.
I will complete my 1 BTC.
When the system starts printing money again, Bitcoin—the asset that suffered the most violent dump—will execute the most violent V-shaped recovery.
Check Indicators: Fed emergency intervention, declaration of QE resumption.
(4) The Fatal Flaw: Deus Ex Machina
There is one variable that could prove my scenario completely wrong.
OpenAI’s profitability miraculously turns around, or a savior appears to plug their massive deficit.
A limitless bet from Middle Eastern oil money. Or the Pentagon nationalizing them with defense funds.
If that miracle happens, the crash is postponed beyond 2030.
The market will continue to boom.
If that happens, I hope the overflowing liquidity flows right into my Apple stock.
Apple will do just fine.
They have plenty of catalysts: foldables, on-device AI, and their 20th-anniversary editions. 🍏
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